The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%, and what that means for your mortgage
The policy rate has not moved since July. For anyone renewing this year, the useful question is not where rates go next but what the last two years already did to the payment.
On 2 September the Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent. The Bank said recent data had come in largely in line with the forecast it published in July, which is central-bank language for nothing has happened that we did not expect.
The Bank noted that economic growth has picked up after stalling over the past year, and pointed to two pressures pulling in opposite directions: conflict in the Middle East keeping energy prices higher for longer, which raises the risk of inflation running hotter than forecast, and new United States tariffs on Canadian exports, met with proportionate counter-tariffs and support for affected businesses and workers.
What a hold actually changes
Nothing, immediately — and that is the point worth understanding. A variable-rate mortgage is priced off a lender’s prime rate, which moves with the policy rate; a hold means a variable payment stays where it is. A fixed-rate mortgage is priced off bond yields, which move on expectations rather than on the announcement itself, so fixed rates often shift before a decision and barely twitch on the day.
The more useful exercise for most households is not forecasting. It is arithmetic on the renewal in front of them. A mortgage signed at the bottom of the rate cycle and renewing now is repricing against a different world, and the size of that change is knowable today rather than guessable.
The next date
The next scheduled announcement is 28 October 2026. Between now and then, the two things the Bank said it is watching — energy prices and the tariff situation — are also the two things most likely to move a fixed-rate quote, because both feed inflation expectations and therefore bond yields.
Homula’s mortgage calculator uses Canadian semi-annual compounding rather than the monthly compounding common in American calculators, which is a real difference of a few dollars a month and a few thousand over a term.
Sources
- Bank of Canada — policy rate announcement, 2 September 2026
- Bank of Canada — opening statement, 2 September 2026
Figures are as reported by the sources above on the date of publication. Nothing here is advice about a particular property or a particular household — for that, ask someone who can see your circumstances.