Interest rates, housing policy, the condominium correction, rents and supply. Every figure is sourced, and every source is named at the foot of the piece.
After more than a decade of construction, the Crosstown began carrying passengers in February. The research on transit and property values is clearer than the marketing, and less dramatic.
A large share of Canadian mortgages come up for renewal this year, most of them signed when five-year fixed rates started with a one. The arithmetic is unpleasant but it is knowable, which makes it manageable.
TransitBoring machines went into the ground in April. The province has declined to name an opening date, and the working assumption is the early 2030s — which is the number that matters if you are buying near it.
PolicyThree per cent of assessed value, billed in three instalments, and charged to anyone who simply did not file. If you own a Toronto property and did not declare by 30 April, this is the bill.
Reading the marketEvery market report publishes both. They answer different questions, and the one you want is usually the median.
Interest ratesThe policy rate has not moved since July. For anyone renewing this year, the useful question is not where rates go next but what the last two years already did to the payment.
Reading the marketDays on market and the sold-to-list ratio move before prices do. They are also the two figures most easily reset by relisting.
PolicyBill C-4 received Royal Assent in March. If you are buying a newly built home and it is your first, the federal GST on it may be gone entirely.
Market dataThe board’s August figures show sales down 16 per cent from July and new listings down more. Both halves of that matter.
LendingIf more than half the income qualifying your mortgage is rent, your lender now has to treat the loan as a different kind of risk. That cost reaches you.
RentalsThe first genuinely tenant-favourable market since the pandemic, driven by a wave of purpose-built rental completions and condominium investors who cannot sell.
SupplyHousing starts are slowing, pre-construction has frozen, and the buildings that answer the next decade’s demand are the ones not being launched now.
Toronto condosNot one new project launched in the GTHA in the first quarter. Prices are down, sales are down, and the reason both matter is what it does to supply in 2029.
PolicyA $1.5 billion federal and provincial deal pays the city to stop taxing construction so heavily. On a two-bedroom apartment the charge falls by about $48,000.