Toronto’s condominium market had its worst quarter in thirty years

In the first quarter of 2026, 246 new condominium units were sold across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area — a 52 per cent fall from the same quarter a year earlier. For the first time in at least thirty years, no new project launched at all.

Resale tells a milder version of the same story. Condominium prices in January were down 9.8 per cent year over year to an average of $604,759, and City of Toronto resale condominium prices had retreated roughly 15 to 18 per cent from their 2022 peak by late 2025.

Three things happened at once

A wave of completions arrived from projects sold in 2021 and 2022, adding supply. Interest rates made the carrying cost of an investment unit painful. And the investors who bought a large share of those units left the market — a departure the new lending rules have since made harder to reverse.

Why an empty pipeline is the story

A project that does not launch in 2026 does not complete in 2029 or 2030. The market is oversupplied now and, on current launch numbers, heading toward a shortage at the end of the decade. That is an uncomfortable combination for anyone reasoning from today’s conditions in either direction — the buyer assuming softness is permanent, and the seller assuming it is a blip.

On any Homula listing, the price-trend charts show the median sold price for that property type in that community, quarter by quarter, with a gap drawn wherever there were too few sales to publish a median honestly.